COVID-19 Vaccine Purchasing & Manufacturing Arrangements
*Last updated on March 3, 2021
Access to Covid-19 vaccines is an issue of high global public concern. We have been tracking publicly available data on agreements to manufacture, purchase, supply and/or donate Covid-19 vaccines in order to shed light on who is likely to have access to which vaccines, from whom, and when.
A selection of graphics representing the data are presented below; the full dataset is available for download here, along with its associated README file.
Key Research Findings
Lack of transparency
Not all agreements are being publicly reported in a timely fashion, and of those that are reported, they often lack basic information, such as the total number of vaccines being provided and their prices. This lack of transparency makes it challenging to draw firm conclusions about global access to COVID-19 vaccines.
For example, pricing information and related terms and conditions of the agreement (e.g., timelines for delivery, liability arrangements, flexibility to re-sell) are not available for the vast majority of confirmed vaccine purchases. The lack of information increases information asymmetry between sellers and buyers, and makes it difficult to assess the situation. For example, questions have been raised about the fairness of prices per dose agreed for the AstraZeneca vaccine in Uganda (7 USD) and South Africa (5.25 USD), in comparison to the European Union (3.50 USD).
Agreements cover at least 16 vaccine candidates
Twenty-seven vaccines are in late-stage (Phase 2 or 3) development or post-registration; we have found publicly reported purchase agreements for 16 of these.
Among these 16, AstraZeneca has publicly committed to supply the greatest number of doses – at approximately 3 billion doses, slightly more than double the number of committed doses for the next nearest candidate (Pfizer/BioNTech at approximately 1.5 billion doses). Based on current estimates, it is unlikely that enough vaccines will be manufactured in 2021 or even 2022 to meet global demand or achieve global population immunity. We are collating further data on manufacturing volumes, locations and technology transfer agreements, and welcome contributions of data at email@example.com.
Most of these agreements are between vaccine developers and governments
The majority of purchase agreements in the dataset are between vaccine developers and governments or intergovernmental organizations (i.e., African Union, European Union, and the COVAX facility). However, there are numerous more complicated arrangements. For example, a purchase agreement between a vaccine developer and government may also include an agreement to manufacture and/or distribute the vaccine via a local company, or a private entity may purchase vaccine doses from a vaccine developer to sell on the private market in a given country.
There are significant disparities in vaccine access
Countries with the means to do so began making advance purchase agreements for vaccines in the second and third quarter of 2020, well before there was data available on which, if any, of the vaccines would prove to be safe and effective. Thirty-two countries – Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, Chile, New Zealand, and the 27 EU Member States, have publicly announced agreements that, if all vaccine candidates were to be approved by regulatory bodies, would provide enough doses to cover their entire populations at least twice over. However, most of the countries that have announced agreements publicly have secured enough doses to cover less than 50 percent of their populations.
Purchasing agreements have been confirmed with 63 countries or territories, the African Union, the European Union, and COVAX.
The international pooled purchasing mechanism for COVID-19 vaccines, COVAX, led by the World Health Organization, CEPI, and Gavi, the Vaccines Alliance, is intended to ensure equitable access to vaccines for each participating country. More than 180 countries – including 90 self-financing upper middle- and high-income countries, and 92 low- and lower middle-income countries – are reported to be participating in COVAX. However, COVAX has yet to secure sufficient funding for an adequate number of vaccines to reach its goal of 20% coverage for all participating countries in 2021. As of February 3, 2021, it is projecting coverage for 3.3% of the total population of participating countries in the first half of 2021. This poses a particular challenge for the many countries, primarily low- and lower-middle income, that appear to be relying entirely or largely on their participation in COVAX to secure access to vaccines, having made no other publicly available vaccine purchase arrangements to date.
In the next year, as manufacturing capacity remains limited, most of the available doses will go to high-income countries, who have reserved the greatest number of vaccine doses – amounting to 3.93 doses/capita (the European Union arrangements are included in this figure).  In contrast, upper middle income countries have, through bilateral arrangements, secured enough for 0.48 doses/capita, and lower-middle income countries have secured 0.17 doses/capita. This may be a significant underestimate, however, as middle-income countries Russia, China and India are able to produce significant volumes of vaccines, but we have found little public information on total volumes to be produced and/or exported.
Low-income countries have bilaterally secured only 0.03 doses/capita. However, these numbers exclude the 970 million doses available for African Union members to purchase through arrangements between the African Union and vaccine producers; this arrangement would equate to 0.75 doses/capita across the African Union, or roughly 42 percent population coverage (taking into account the number of doses required for each candidate).
 Many countries have included provisions in their contracts to buy additional doses at a later date, those optional doses are not included in the totals presented here. These optional doses are, however, included separately in the full dataset. In addition, it is important to note that these calculations do not include donations of doses of vaccines between countries nor do they include doses anticipated through COVAX.
Bilateral donations are beginning
In recent weeks, some countries have begun to donate (or, in some cases, to sell) vaccine doses to other countries, either from their purchased stocks or from domestically produced vaccines. In at least one case, a country has provided a grant to another country to be able to purchase vaccines directly, as has been seen with Australia giving Cambodia a grant of 28 million USD.
In the absence of adequate supply for COVAX, such donations may become an important way for countries without bilateral agreements with vaccine developers to obtain vaccines for their populations.
For other useful sources of data and analysis on this topic, see the Duke Global Health Innovation Center and UNICEF, which are also both tracking similar information on COVID-19 vaccine agreements and access issues.
For more resources on COVID-19 research and development, intellectual property and access, and pricing, procurement, distribution and manufacturing, see our COVID-19 Data Sources page.
Notes About the Data
Sources and methodology
Data are updated every one to two weeks. Information on agreements is aggregated from publicly available sources, including news reports (links available in dataset).
Income and population calculations are primarily based on World Bank data, and regional groups are based on World Bank definitions. Income levels for the European Union and African Union are calculated as if all the countries involved formed a single entity (countries or territories for which the World Bank do not provide such data are excluded from these calculations). Taiwanese income and population calculations are based on Taiwanese government data.
Clinical trial stage information primarily based on the New York Times’ vaccine tracker; vaccines that have achieved regulatory approval in at least one country, as captured by UNICEF's COVID-19 Vaccine Market Dashboard, are counted here as approved.
Estimates for doses committed and the price of the agreements are used when precise figures not available. Depending on data available, total price may be calculated based on price per dose or vice versa; calculation method noted. When currency is not reported in USD, currency is converted using currency conversion rate on the announcement date.
This dataset relies on companies, governments, and multilateral organizations making their agreements publicly available. There are substantial gaps in the data, including that not all agreements are being reported in a timely fashion, and reported agreements may lack one or more relevant data points, such as price, doses committed, or manufacturer.
Russia, China, and India, which are each developing and/or manufacturing several vaccine candidates, have not released clear information on how many doses they will retain for domestic use versus how many they plan to export.
While efforts are made to ensure data accuracy and completeness, given the lack of detailed information available publicly and the fast-moving nature these agreements, the data may contain inaccuracies, be incomplete, or be out of date.
The dataset and graphics are updated every one to two weeks. Given that this dataset is reliant on information reported in the public domain, it may contain inaccuracies, be incomplete, or quickly become out of date.
Please contact us with comments and suggestions at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Suggested citation: Global Health Centre. (2021). COVID-19 Vaccine Purchases and Manufacturing Agreements. Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies. Retrieved from: www.knowledgeportalia.org/covid19-vaccine-arrangements
Anna Bezruki is lead researcher for this initiative, responsible for data collection, curation, visualizations and analysis. Surabhi Agarwal is contributing to data collection. Adriàn Alonso Ruiz is contributing to data collection and analysis. Marcela Vieira is contributing to data collection. Suerie Moon is supervising the research and analysis.
For media inquiries please contact Nora Sada, Communications Officer for the Global Health Centre at email@example.com.
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